Japan is a country just east of South and North Korea.  The island country stretches from South Korea to the southeastern part of Russia.  There has always been a fascination with the country and its culture.  The slow decline in the population raises concern that there may be a lot of major changes to the ecosystem and economy.  This is a population that is mysteriously dying to unknown causes.  Finding the issues may help turn this situation around.

According to a report from the CIA, Japan is a country made up of 126,919,659 people as of July 2015.  The growth rate of the population was on a decline of -.16% in 2015.  This rate is a threat to the overall survival of the country.  The decline could be attributed to various disasters and manmade issues.  These issues range from radiation to natural disasters to other forms of violence.  The emigration of people going to other countries is another factor as well.  Figure 1 is a population profile of Japan from a census conducted by the CIA in 2015.

There are various projections for the future of Japan’s population.  Some projections show that the population will be down one third by the year 2100.  Others say that the projection is half the population by the year 2048.  With the various recorded declines, any of these projections are very possible.  We can expect to see anywhere from half to one third of the population to disappear over the upcoming decades.  There has not been any improvement on stopping this from happening.

The birth rate of Japan was recorded at 7.93 births per 1,000 people.  This rate is not as high as would be needed to just maintain the same population size by the year 2050.  Over the years Japanese women left their jobs to stay at home has lowered their energy and happiness.  The change in mood and attitude had made it more difficult for women to find someone to start a family with.    This sudden change lowered the birth rate within the country.

Migrating has come to a complete stop and dropped down to zero.  This occurrence was possibly caused by the various disasters in the country.  The radiation, volcano eruptions and tsunamis make it less enticing to move to Japan.  A large emigration over the years due to better living conditions in other areas caused the total population to decline, and showed no signs of stopping and reverting to immigration.  The library of commerce mentioned this change in an article which stated, “Between 1886 and 1911, more than 400,000 men and women left Japan.”

The article continued with mentioning the fact that other countries moved in.  Through commerce, threatening tactics and pressure from other people, farmers and other companies were forced out of business within the country.  In order to make up for the loss of money, people went to where there were reports of opportunities to make money and live comfortably.  A lot of the emigration took people to places such as Hawaii, the Pacific U.S. and other U.S. controlled lands.  These events led to a drop in Japanese fertility and birth rates.

A study conducted by Noriko Tsuya, faculty of economics at Keio University, showed that the total fertility rate per woman dropped to 1.41 children in 2012.  This rate is extremely below the replacement rate required to sustain the population.  The birth rate compared to a death rate study done in 2013 by trading economics shows that the deaths are a lot higher.  Japan was measured at 10.10 deaths per one thousand people.

The recorded death rate includes tsunamis, volcanoes, flooding, violence, age, earthquakes and other causes.  This shows that for every 1,000 people in Japan approximately 10 of them will die.  The violence that is mentioned refers to gang related violence.  Just like every other country, Japan has a raised amount of gang activity.  The flooding would be the torrential downpours that occur during the season.  This in turn catches some of the population off guard, causing death to some.

The volcanoes erupting changes an ecosystem that prevents life from surviving the area affected.  It is not safe to breathe the air contaminated with volcano ash.  The lava would stream down the side of the volcano, burning anything in its path.  This type of hazard pushes the population away from the area and increases the deaths.  The toxins alone kill a lot of people when an eruption occurs.  Earthquakes do a lot of damage to buildings, but the death rate from them is not as high as would be expected.

The age being part of the death rate is actually slowing down.  It has been discovered that Japanese men and women have a higher life expectancy.  In 1947, they were expected to only live until the age of 50 for men and 54 for women.  As of 2007 the life expectancy was raised to 73 years for men and 78 years for women.  Today they are expected to live 80 years for men and 82 years for women.  One reason for this higher life could be caused by medical reasons.

One example is a report by Shalmali Pal in an article written back in 2011, “more than 70% of Japanese men, ages 45-54, undergo some form of health check-up annually. These check-ups are often done as part of a program called “Ningen,” or “human dry dock,” during which people stay at a clinic or hospital for several days for a whole-body systemic exam.”  This type of care ensures that the people are staying healthy and are not at risk of any problems.

The fertility rate has had a major change from 1947 to now.  The rate dropped, especially after WWII.  It made a drop from 4.5 children per woman in 1947, to 2.0 children per woman in 1957.  Up until 1974, this rate stabilized at 2.0 to 2.2 children per woman.  After that year it declined down to the current level of 1.3 to 1.4, and is expected to continue declining.  These numbers were produced by the study conducted by Noriko Tsuya.  Other studies have shown similar results.

Before WWII, Japan was a country that had a growing population.  The women were among the working class.  They helped grow crops and tend livestock along with their husbands.  Keeping busy with jobs like these helped the moral.  It helped the women stay happy and even caused some of them to get married and have children.  Being active countered the chances of depression setting in.  After the war started, a majority of the population started dying off.

Women started marrying American men and moving back to the U.S. with them.  The atomic bombs were dropped, as mentioned earlier.  Those had taken a major toll on the total Japanese population, and the fertility rate within the country.  The explosions alone killed off an approximate 120,000 people instantly, and tens of thousands more later on from radiation poisoning.  The radiation affected the fertility and birth rates within Japan.

Current trends are showing a necessity for something to be done to turn the decline into an increase.  There are talks about mass immigration that may not work as expected.  The government of Japan is talking about incentives to get women to rejoin the work force.  They prescribe doctors and therapists to each member of the population for life.  This medical action promotes personal health and decreases the cases of depression in the nation.

Future trends do not appear to show signs of growth for the Japanese population.  Without people moving back into the country and the amount of radiation that currently exists in different parts of the country.  Population regrowth may be something that cannot be achieved.  Women rejoining the workforce could lower the depression rate and increase fertility.  There are a lot of reasons for the lack of fixing the trends that are occurring and predicted to occur.

Japan is a country that has faced many complications and setbacks to its total population.  The influences of other countries have driven the direction taken by the Japanese people.  With foreign businesses moving in, and the results of war, after a while drove people out.  The search for better opportunities and a happier life were factors that came from the setbacks that have been mentioned.  The volcanoes and earthquakes were only minor setbacks compared to what other countries did.

A positive growth rate may be something that can never be achieved.  Without hard work and the right path being chosen to promote population growth, the current projections will be what happen.  Between the natural disasters, war and toxins in the environment, the country’s population dynamics will continue to show a decline in younger generations and increase in elders.  With the longevity being increased, the elder population will continue to grow as the younger ones decline.

Further learning about the population trends and habits in Japan will give other governments the opportunity to prevent this same thing from happening to them.  Some of the events that are causing the issues cannot be helped, such as the volcanoes, earthquakes and tsunamis.  Bringing business back into the country, and promoted the growth of local businesses could entice people to migrate back into Japan.  This would theoretically, in turn raise the fertility and birth rates.